Six Pack: Ohio State vs. Michigan, Notre Dame vs. ( News Iowa )

We have reached the busiest weekend of the college football season. Sure, we get the Egg Ball on Thanksgiving and a full slate of games on Friday and Saturday, but it’s also the last week of the regular season. It’s the end of the fireworks show on Independence Day. Children are important except at the end of the process, but it is fair.

Certainly the balls and bowls have a conversation with us, and those will be wonderful. But there’s nothing quite like a college football Saturday, and this last one is full.

So we have to wait a long time until they return. And I think we can all agree that it’s best to warm up to a 6-0 weekend in the Six Pack. All courtesy of Caesars Odds Sportsbook.

Games of the Week

Featured Game | Ohio State Buckeyes vs

No. 3 Michigan to No. 2 Ohio State: The only thing I think will happen in this game is the status of Michigan running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards. Corum left last week’s narrow escape over Illinois at the end of the first half and had a breakout performance in the third quarter before sitting the rest of the game on the sideline. If his injury was serious enough for the Wolverines to pull him out of the game until the last second, it’s fair to question how healthy he’ll be for Ohio State.

The big question is how dependent the Wolverines offense was on the Hearts and the run game. The Wolverines rank fourth nationally in EPA per rush, but are a more modest 26th in EPA per drop back. And if Ohio State’s defensive weakness is planned, I don’t do it on the ground. While Wolverines are certainly better with Hearts, I’m not sure how many points they use either. However, the Buckeyes’ defense is as good as anyone else’s. So while I’m not too confident in knowing the outcome of this game until the winner, I don’t see it being released very often. Ohio State 27, Michigan 21 | Under 56

Featured Game | USC Trojans vs

No. 15 Notre Dame to No. 6 U.S.C: For those who stopped watching Notre Dame following their loss to Stanford, the team you saw then will not be the same team you see this weekend. In the first six games, Notre Dame scored 2.06 points per possession, scored touchdowns on only 66.7% of its red zone possessions and had an explosive rate of 8.8%. In five games later, the Irish are averaging 2.92 points per drive, scoring touchdowns on 73.1% of their red zone chances, and have an explosive 11.3% rushing rate. It’s not the kind of output that can compete with what USC is doing, but the kind of output that can cause serious problems.

The Trojans picked up their biggest win of the season last week, but this defense is still vulnerable. USC has forced 244 turnovers this season on defense, but there are 18 interceptions. You cannot intercept the ball when the team shoots; when they do not throw teams, there are forces of victory for the Trojans. USC’s defense ranks 117th nationally in EPA per touchdown and 114th in defensive success against the run. I don’t see how the Trojans’ defense can pull the field far enough for them, and if Notre Dame’s defense, which ranks 10th in sack rate and 19th in EPA per dropback, might have a problem or two. to receive the message USC 34, Notre Dame 31 | Notre Dame +5.5

Close of the Week

Featured Game | TCU Horned Frogs vs. Iowa State Cyclones

Iowa State at 4 TCU. No: I threw a lot of numbers at you, and I could choose to explain a bunch more, but the numbers aren’t important to me here. Iowa State is a team that plays in the dirt and drags any opponent down. It’s not like the Cyclones will beat you when they do — only 4-7, though — but even when you do, you’ll leave covered in slop and feeling bad about yourself. Only one of Iowa State’s seven losses (vs. Oklahoma 27-13) has come by double digits. The remaining six losses came by a combined 24 points. Baylor drew in the dunghill, then Kansas. The state of Kansas could not escape, nor could Texas. Oklahoma State and Texas Tech were the last to play the Iowa State game.

Now it’s TCU, and even though the Horned Frogs have everything left to play for, no one is running away from Iowa State. Also, have you seen TCU’s offense lately? He was not performing at nearly the same level as most of the time. Through the first seven games against FBS opponents, TCU had an offensive success rate of 45.2%, scored 3.27 points per possession, and had an explosive play rate of 16.4%. Those numbers in the last three games drop to a 38.4% pass rate, 1.92 points per drive and an 11.4% explosive play rate. This team limps to the finish line. That doesn’t mean it’s not there, but it’s hard to believe they’ll cover this number. Not in manure. TCU 27, Iowa State 23 | Iowa State +10

Wagon of the Week

Featured Game | Florida State Seminoles vs. Florida Gators

Florida at No. 16 Florida State (Friday): If I told you there was only one team in the country that ranked in the top five in points scored per drive and points allowed per drive in November, would you be able to guess which team it is? Because it’s Florida State, a team that opened the year with a surprising win over LSU in New Orleans, but after a three-game losing streak to start October. Well, it was much different, and much better, since the pain.

Granted, the developer has eased up a bit, but the dominance is still just right. The Seminoles are flying now and have a chance to make a statement this weekend. I think it would be. The Gators will be able to move the ball against the ‘Noles better than most teams have recently, but I don’t see how they have any shutouts. Florida State was one of the nation’s third and fourth best in offense this season; The Gators defense is one of the absolute worst in those situations. Don’t you want to stop, I don’t know Florida. Florida State 37, Florida 23 | Florida State -9.5

More Weeks

Featured Game | Captain Blue Devil vs

To excite the forest at the DukeI don’t really get this high because I see this game flying in the 70s more often than not. We have two powerful offenses against two defenses that can’t slow anyone down. Yes, Wake Forest appeared to have a meltdown two weeks ago, turning the ball over at an alarming rate against Louisville and NC State, but then rebounded. He put up 34 points in a close loss to North Carolina and 45 against Syracuse last week.

Duke, meanwhile, has never stopped scoring points, and unless it’s because of a 24-7 win over Virginia Tech, his defensive numbers are worse than they already are (and they don’t look great). I don’t think it’s going to be one of the most popular games to watch on a Saturday afternoon, but it’s probably one of the most enjoyable days. Wake Forest 38, Duke 37 | Over 66.5

You moved the week

Featured Game | Kentucky Wildcats vs

25 Louisville at Kentucky.: Kentucky quarterback Mark Stoops received a contract extension this week, and with Kentucky losing two straight — including to Vanderbilt — the jokes come easily. But Stoops deserves an extension for everything that’s going on in Lexington, and it was better to announce this week than Louisville was after the loss.

It happened on the occasion of a real loss to Louisville. As I said, Kentucky has lost two straight and is limping toward the finish line. Louisville has won five of its last six, with the only loss coming on the road at Clemson. The vibes are much stronger in Louisville, but if the vibes aren’t enough, there’s a matchup. Kentucky’s offense is bad, but its teams have been the worst that can get behind a QB. Well, Louisville ranks seventh nationally in rushing and second in sack rate. Bad news for that pesky Kentucky line that has struggled all year. Louisville 24, Kentucky 20 | Louisville (+130)

Games of the Week

1-1

11-13-1

-3.3

Close of the Week

0-1

4-9

-5.9

In general

3-3

37-38-1

-1.53

Which college football reads can you make with confidence in Week 13, and which top 25 teams will go down hard? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread — all from a proven computer model that has returned nearly $3,000 in profits over six-plus seasons — and prove it.

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